Top priority · shared theatre
Southwest EuropeIntelligence Center
A shared France–Spain wildfire intelligence view that keeps every incident, authority, perimeter and public order physically and administratively distinct.
Official country routing
France / España
Four separate evidentiary lanes
What this view is—and is not
Current incidents do not rewrite an earlier outlook. Every lane keeps its own issue time, validity and evidentiary meaning.
current-observed-and-reported-evidence
Current operational situation
Incident status, official orders, evacuations, measured and modeled air quality, satellite evidence and closures. This is not a forecast.
- Issued
- Jul 26, 2026, 3:45 PM UTC
- Valid
- Not published → Not published
published-seasonal-outlook
Immutable July 20 Auburn outlook
Frozen publication covering western Mediterranean conditions. Current fires cannot rewrite it.
- Issued
- Jul 20, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Valid
- 2026-07-20 → 2026-09-30
experimental-seasonal-extension
Experimental France–Spain seasonal extension
Five scored France/Spain regions plus tracker-only central Spain; one regional seasonal score is not a monthly score.
- Issued
- Jul 25, 2026, 12:26 PM UTC
- Valid
- 2026-08-01 → 2026-09-30
conditional-research-output
IC1 · 0–72h / days 4–7 / days 8–14
Incident-conditioned deterministic IC1 plus ECMWF 51-member P10/P50/P90 fire-weather envelopes. Corridors are directional scenarios, not future firelines.
- Issued
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Valid
- 2026-07-26 → 2026-08-08
Situation + evidence
Operational theatre map
EFFIS satellite-mapped perimeters, confirmed incidents, point-based public orders, frozen thermal detections and directional scenario corridors.
Smoke · PM2.5 · measured pollution
Air-quality evidence
Station and alert-system observations remain separate from CAMS-modeled atmospheric composition. Neither is silently attributed only to wildfire.
Regional air-quality alert information; not a modeled smoke plume and not attributed solely to wildfire.
Observed Jul 26, 2026, 8:00 AM UTCEpisodes de pollutionMaximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.
Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecastMaximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.
Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecastMaximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.
Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecastMaximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.
Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecastMaximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.
Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecastMaximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.
Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecast390.2 MW FRP · 288 detections / 7 d
5,468.5 MW FRP · 387 detections / 7 d
194.7 MW FRP · 45 detections / 7 d
20,666.2 MW FRP · 4,129 detections / 7 d
413.2 MW FRP · 499 detections / 7 d
7,260.3 MW FRP · 2,670 detections / 7 d
Exact frozen VIIRS thermal observations. They remain distinct from confirmed incidents and EFFIS/JRC satellite-mapped burnt-area perimeters.
Reproducible Auburn IC1
14-day forecast playback
Auburn IC1 separates immediate spread pressure from medium-range persistence and ensemble uncertainty.
Incident-conditioned spread pressure and directional wind corridor.
Regional escalation, drying, overnight recovery and modeled relief.
P10/P50/P90 scenario envelope across 51 members—not an exact fireline.
France · Southwest
- Weather P10
- 0.292
- Weather P50
- 0.348
- Weather P90
- 0.391
France · Mediterranean
- Weather P10
- 0.268
- Weather P50
- 0.394
- Weather P90
- 0.473
Spain · Northwest
- Weather P10
- 0.377
- Weather P50
- 0.397
- Weather P90
- 0.415
Spain · Mediterranean
- Weather P10
- 0.642
- Weather P50
- 0.657
- Weather P90
- 0.686
Spain · South
- Weather P10
- 0.748
- Weather P50
- 0.758
- Weather P90
- 0.774
Spain · Central tracker · tracker-only profile
- Weather P10
- 0.571
- Weather P50
- 0.586
- Weather P90
- 0.600
Scenario envelope, not a growth simulation. P10/P50/P90 quantify ensemble fire-weather pressure. Corridors represent downwind monitoring sectors. They are not probabilities that fire reaches a named place, predicted arrival times or exact future firelines.
Current operational situation
Major-incident board
Prioritized by population exposure, operational status and evidence-backed spread pressure—not by headline volume.
Gironde
Incendie de Saumos
Gironde incident complex; its two EFFIS polygons remain separate measurements and are not joined to any Spanish perimeter.
- Official reported area
- 42,000 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 34,640 ha
- Evacuated
- 220,000 evacuated in the Gironde source scope
- Confined
- No confinement total published in the frozen source package
Madrid
Incendio forestal Sierra Oeste
Madrid Sierra Oeste is a distinct physical incident. Shared command with Ávila and Toledo does not establish a continuous perimeter.
- Official reported area
- 22,000 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 16,817 ha
- Evacuated
- 29,488 outside their homes in the Madrid reporting scope
- Confined
- 21,132 confined in the Madrid reporting scope
Ávila
Incendio de Burgohondo
Ávila/Burgohondo remains physically separate from Madrid Sierra Oeste; a small discontinuous contact did not establish a continuous fire edge.
- Official reported area
- 21,000 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 45,405 ha
- Evacuated
- 16 municipalities reported evacuated; no non-overlapping person total frozen
- Confined
- 3 municipalities reported confined; no non-overlapping person total frozen
Toledo
Frente occidental de Toledo
Toledo remains a distinct administrative and physical record; no governed EFFIS polygon was assigned in this package.
- Official reported area
- Not published
- EFFIS mapped area
- Not published
- Evacuated
- 5,200 evacuated across the Toledo reporting scope
- Confined
- No separable Toledo confinement total published
Landes
Incendie de Biscarrosse
Landes is maintained separately from the Gironde incident despite shared regional resources and smoke.
- Official reported area
- 3,500 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 4,033 ha
- Evacuated
- 30,000–36,000 evacuated; source range retained
- Confined
- No confinement total published
Castellón/Castelló
Incendio de La Vall d'Uixó
Plana Baixa incident; separate from the Manises fire and its casualty record.
- Official reported area
- 4,300 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 6,606 ha
- Evacuated
- Approximately 16,000 evacuated
- Confined
- La Vall d'Uixó and Betxí under confinement orders; no reconciled person total
Var
Feu du Gros Bessillon
Var incident record; no physical connection to the southwest France incidents.
- Official reported area
- 4,000 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 3,215 ha
- Evacuated
- Approximately 3,000 evacuated; about 2,000 still unable to return at the cited update
- Confined
- No confinement total published
Guadalajara
Incendio de La Mierla
La Mierla is separate from the Madrid–Ávila–Toledo national-emergency command group.
- Official reported area
- 35,000 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 33,418 ha
- Evacuated
- Approximately 1,200 evacuated across the incident scope
- Confined
- 14 localities reported confined; no reconciled person total
Haute-Corse
Feu de la Restonica
Corsican incident without a governed EFFIS record in this evidence package.
- Official reported area
- 900 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- Not published
- Evacuated
- No evacuation total published in the frozen source
- Confined
- No confinement total published in the frozen source
Pyrénées-Orientales
Incendie de Trévillach
Historical active-season record shown separately from current uncontrolled fronts.
- Official reported area
- 4,900 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 3,141 ha
- Evacuated
- 10,000–15,000 evacuated during 4–6 July; historical incident scope
- Confined
- No confinement total published
Zaragoza
Incendio de Orés
Controlled Aragón incident retained for seasonal and perimeter context.
- Official reported area
- 15,400 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 15,045 ha
- Evacuated
- Approximately 1,000 evacuated from six municipalities
- Confined
- No confinement total published
Almería
Incendio de Los Gallardos
Extinguished Almería incident; casualty totals are not assigned to other Valencian incidents.
- Official reported area
- 5,200 ha
- EFFIS mapped area
- 5,400 ha
- Evacuated
- Approximately 1,405–1,500 evacuated; source range retained
- Confined
- No confinement total published
Authority orders · dedicated view
Evacuation, confinement & closures
Population orders retain their issuing authority, affected scope, event time and geometry state. “No information acquired” is never rendered as “no order.”
Incendie de Saumos
- Evacuation
- 220,000 evacuated in the Gironde source scopeGironde, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
- Confinement
- No confinement total published in the frozen source packageGironde, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
- Authority
- Préfecture de la Gironde / SDIS 33
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- A63 closure/restriction reported in the Gironde operational loop.
- Source references
- gironde-prefecture-situation, gendarmerie-nouvelle-aquitaine, associated-press-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Incendio forestal Sierra Oeste
- Evacuation
- 29,488 outside their homes in the Madrid reporting scopeComunidad de Madrid
- Confinement
- 21,132 confined in the Madrid reporting scopeComunidad de Madrid
- Authority
- Comunidad de Madrid / ASEM 112; national emergency unified command
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- M-507, M-540, M-501, M-541, M-512, M-531, M-539, M-533, M-521, M-855, M-537 and M-510 restrictions at authority-published kilometre points. · Bus lines 541, 545, 546, 547, 548, 551, 640A, 643, 645 and 665 suspended; line 642 curtailed. · N-403 restriction between Cadalso de los Vidrios and Almorox.
- Source references
- madrid-sierra-oeste-official, el-pais-central-spain-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas, rtve-central-spain-july26
Incendio de Burgohondo
- Evacuation
- 16 municipalities reported evacuated; no non-overlapping person total frozenÁvila, Castilla y León
- Confinement
- 3 municipalities reported confined; no non-overlapping person total frozenÁvila, Castilla y León
- Authority
- Junta de Castilla y León; national emergency unified command
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- N-403 restriction between Cadalso de los Vidrios and Almorox.
- Source references
- el-pais-central-spain-july26, rtve-central-spain-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Frente occidental de Toledo
- Evacuation
- 5,200 evacuated across the Toledo reporting scopeToledo, Castilla-La Mancha
- Confinement
- No separable Toledo confinement total publishedToledo, Castilla-La Mancha
- Authority
- INFOCAM; national emergency unified command
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- N-403 restriction between Cadalso de los Vidrios and Almorox.
- Source references
- el-pais-central-spain-july26, rtve-central-spain-july26
Incendie de Biscarrosse
- Evacuation
- 30,000–36,000 evacuated; source range retainedLandes, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
- Confinement
- No confinement total publishedLandes, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
- Authority
- Préfecture des Landes / SDIS 40
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
- Source references
- gendarmerie-nouvelle-aquitaine, associated-press-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Incendio de La Vall d'Uixó
- Evacuation
- Approximately 16,000 evacuatedCastellón, Comunitat Valenciana
- Confinement
- La Vall d'Uixó and Betxí under confinement orders; no reconciled person totalCastellón, Comunitat Valenciana
- Authority
- Generalitat Valenciana / CCE 112 CV
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- CV-223 closed between kilometre points 0 and 11 in both directions at the cited update.
- Source references
- copernicus-ems-plana-baixa, el-pais-vall-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Feu du Gros Bessillon
- Evacuation
- Approximately 3,000 evacuated; about 2,000 still unable to return at the cited updateVar, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
- Confinement
- No confinement total publishedVar, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
- Authority
- Préfecture du Var / SDIS 83
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
- Source references
- var-prefecture-situation, associated-press-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Incendio de La Mierla
- Evacuation
- Approximately 1,200 evacuated across the incident scopeGuadalajara, Castilla-La Mancha
- Confinement
- 14 localities reported confined; no reconciled person totalGuadalajara, Castilla-La Mancha
- Authority
- Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha / INFOCAM
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
- Source references
- infocam-la-mierla, effis-current-burnt-areas
Feu de la Restonica
- Evacuation
- No evacuation total published in the frozen sourceHaute-Corse, Corse
- Confinement
- No confinement total published in the frozen sourceHaute-Corse, Corse
- Authority
- SDIS 2B / Préfecture de Haute-Corse
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
- Source references
- corse-net-infos-restonica
Incendie de Trévillach
- Evacuation
- 10,000–15,000 evacuated during 4–6 July; historical incident scopePyrénées-Orientales, Occitanie
- Confinement
- No confinement total publishedPyrénées-Orientales, Occitanie
- Authority
- Préfecture des Pyrénées-Orientales / SDIS 66
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
- Source references
- prefecture-pyrenees-orientales, effis-current-burnt-areas
Incendio de Orés
- Evacuation
- Approximately 1,000 evacuated from six municipalitiesZaragoza, Aragón
- Confinement
- No confinement total publishedZaragoza, Aragón
- Authority
- Gobierno de Aragón / INFOAR
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
- Source references
- infoar-ores, effis-current-burnt-areas
Incendio de Los Gallardos
- Evacuation
- Approximately 1,405–1,500 evacuated; source range retainedAlmería, Andalucía
- Confinement
- No confinement total publishedAlmería, Andalucía
- Authority
- Junta de Andalucía / Plan INFOCA
- Event / effective time
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Affected places
- Scope not published
- Geometry state
- No authority polygon published in frozen package
- Closures / orders
- No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
- Source references
- infoca-los-gallardos, effis-current-burnt-areas
Official + responsible sources
Verified reporting
Event time, publication time and retrieval time remain separate. Reporting cannot silently supersede a newer authority update.
France
France and Spain battle concurrent wildfire emergencies
AP reports current official figures across southwest France and Spain while attributing each figure to its stated authority.
- Event
- Jul 26, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC
- Published
- Jul 26, 2026, 10:20 AM UTC
- Retrieved
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Source class
- responsible-news
Spain
Madrid and Ávila remain physically separate incidents
El País reports a discontinuous contact and continuing separation, even as the national emergency is managed jointly.
- Event
- Jul 26, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
- Published
- Jul 26, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC
- Retrieved
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Source class
- responsible-news
Spain
La Vall d'Uixó advances through Sierra d'Espadà
Responsible reporting relays Generalitat operational figures, evacuations, confinement and the uncontrolled status without treating suspected ignition as established arson.
- Event
- Jul 26, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
- Published
- Jul 26, 2026, 5:50 AM UTC
- Retrieved
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Source class
- responsible-news
Spain
Central Spain improves, but complex hours remain
RTVE reports the prime minister's warning that favourable overnight evolution did not yet make the active heads extinguished.
- Event
- Jul 26, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
- Published
- Jul 26, 2026, 8:24 AM UTC
- Retrieved
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Source class
- responsible-news
France
Restonica fire remains active
Regional reporting places the affected area near 900 hectares and keeps the event distinct from mainland French incidents.
- Event
- Jul 26, 2026, 8:45 AM UTC
- Published
- Jul 26, 2026, 9:02 AM UTC
- Retrieved
- Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
- Source class
- responsible-news
Event order, not feed order
Theatre timeline
official · FR
Trévillach fire detected; later EFFIS mapping remains a separate satellite measurement.
Trévillach fire detected; later EFFIS mapping remains a separate satellite measurement.
2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCofficial · ES
Plan INFOCA reports the Los Gallardos incident extinguished.
Plan INFOCA reports the Los Gallardos incident extinguished.
1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCofficial · ES
Madrid, Ávila and later Toledo enter shared national-emergency command while physical incident records remain separate.
Madrid, Ávila and later Toledo enter shared national-emergency command while physical incident records remain separate.
2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCofficial · ES
La Vall d'Uixó incident begins; Copernicus activation follows without an observed-impact product at cutoff.
La Vall d'Uixó incident begins; Copernicus activation follows without an observed-impact product at cutoff.
2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCofficial · FR
Gironde reported-area estimate reaches 42,000 hectares; fire remains active and not fixed.
Gironde reported-area estimate reaches 42,000 hectares; fire remains active and not fixed.
2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCnews · ES
Reporting confirms Madrid Sierra Oeste and Ávila/Burgohondo are not a continuous physical perimeter.
Reporting confirms Madrid Sierra Oeste and Ávila/Burgohondo are not a continuous physical perimeter.
1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCofficial · ES
Plana Baixa remains uncontrolled; evacuation and confinement orders stay in force.
Plana Baixa remains uncontrolled; evacuation and confinement orders stay in force.
2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCnews · FR
Restonica remains active with about 900 hectares reported affected.
Restonica remains active with about 900 hectares reported affected.
1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCofficial · ES
Madrid ASEM updates Sierra Oeste: 22,000 hectares and detailed evacuations, confinements and closures.
Madrid ASEM updates Sierra Oeste: 22,000 hectares and detailed evacuations, confinements and closures.
1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCforecast · EU
Auburn IC1 evidence cycle closes for 0–72 hours, days 4–7 and days 8–14.
Auburn IC1 evidence cycle closes for 0–72 hours, days 4–7 and days 8–14.
3 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
No silent reconciliation
Conflict ledger
Conflicting official, mapped and reported claims remain visible with their authority and time.
FIRMS count basis
The IC1 scorecard's 3,408 regional detections and the exact archive's 1,870 observations use different governed spatial, time-window and retrieval definitions. Both remain visible and are not silently reconciled.
- Auburn IC1 frozen scorecard input
- 3,408 detections across six IC1 regional boxes
- Exact France/Spain country-polygon trailing-24h archive
- 1,870 exact VIIRS observations: 606 FR / 1,264 ES
Gironde area basis
The operational estimate and two EFFIS mapped polygons use different measurement systems and are not silently reconciled.
- Préfecture de la Gironde (relayed)
- 42,000 ha
- EFFIS/JRC satellite mapping
- 29,872 ha + 4,768 ha
Central Spain aggregate scope
The 77,000-hectare national-emergency aggregate cannot be added to the three separately identified incident claims.
- Protección Civil, responsible-source relay
- 77,000 ha across Madrid, Ávila and Toledo
- Madrid authority and responsible reporting
- 22,000 ha Madrid; 21,000 ha Ávila; Toledo not separately reconciled
La Vall d'Uixó area basis
The incident-command estimate and satellite-mapped burnt area are displayed side by side.
- Generalitat operational figure relayed by El País
- 4,300 ha
- EFFIS/JRC satellite mapping
- 6,606 ha
Var area basis
The operational upper estimate and EFFIS mapped area are independent measurements.
- Préfecture du Var
- 4,000 ha
- EFFIS/JRC satellite mapping
- 3,215 ha
Frozen evidence package
Evidence register
Every public claim must resolve to a governed source record. Retrieval time is not event time.
Southwest Europe · Phase 12