Top priority · shared theatre

Southwest EuropeIntelligence Center

A shared France–Spain wildfire intelligence view that keeps every incident, authority, perimeter and public order physically and administratively distinct.

Research intelligence, not emergency instruction.Follow the responsible authority for evacuations, confinement and closures. Missing information never means no risk.
Significant incidents12Physically distinct records
Reported areaNot publishednot issued — operational and satellite areas use overlapping and non-reconciled scopes
EvacuatedNot issued — overlapping scopesnot issued — operational and satellite areas use overlapping and non-reconciled scopes
ConfinedNot issued — overlapping scopesnot issued — operational and satellite areas use overlapping and non-reconciled scopes
IC1 persistence0.8530-72h pressure weighted by 24h detection share

Official country routing

France / España

Four separate evidentiary lanes

What this view is—and is not

Current incidents do not rewrite an earlier outlook. Every lane keeps its own issue time, validity and evidentiary meaning.

01

current-observed-and-reported-evidence

Current operational situation

Separate layer

Incident status, official orders, evacuations, measured and modeled air quality, satellite evidence and closures. This is not a forecast.

Issued
Jul 26, 2026, 3:45 PM UTC
Valid
Not publishedNot published
02

published-seasonal-outlook

Immutable July 20 Auburn outlook

0.434 · YELLOWImmutable publication

Frozen publication covering western Mediterranean conditions. Current fires cannot rewrite it.

Issued
Jul 20, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Valid
2026-07-202026-09-30
03

experimental-seasonal-extension

Experimental France–Spain seasonal extension

Immutable publication

Five scored France/Spain regions plus tracker-only central Spain; one regional seasonal score is not a monthly score.

Issued
Jul 25, 2026, 12:26 PM UTC
Valid
2026-08-012026-09-30
04

conditional-research-output

IC1 · 0–72h / days 4–7 / days 8–14

0.853 · Immutable publication

Incident-conditioned deterministic IC1 plus ECMWF 51-member P10/P50/P90 fire-weather envelopes. Corridors are directional scenarios, not future firelines.

Issued
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Valid
2026-07-262026-08-08

Situation + evidence

Operational theatre map

EFFIS satellite-mapped perimeters, confirmed incidents, point-based public orders, frozen thermal detections and directional scenario corridors.

Shared operational theatrePhysical incidents remain separate
Scenario geometry is symbolic and non-scale: direction and uncertainty only—not distance, arrival, burned extent or exact future firelines.
Measured pollution · stations1 alert / measurement recordPM2.5 / PM10 / ozone measurements remain separate from modeled smoke.
Modeled smoke / air quality6 modeled fieldsForecast concentrations are not station observations or evacuation guidance.
Evacuation / confinement geometryNo authority polygon acquiredOrders are mapped as reference points only unless the issuing authority publishes geometry.
EFFIS satellite-mapped perimeters Official incident point FIRMS frozen detection · Jul 26, 2026, 3:36 PM UTC Directional scenario onlyOrders appear as points unless an authority publishes geometry.

Smoke · PM2.5 · measured pollution

Air-quality evidence

Station and alert-system observations remain separate from CAMS-modeled atmospheric composition. Neither is silently attributed only to wildfire.

Measured pollution / alert systems1 record
FR · Nouvelle-AquitainePM10 · regional alert threshold procedure

Regional air-quality alert information; not a modeled smoke plume and not attributed solely to wildfire.

Observed Jul 26, 2026, 8:00 AM UTCEpisodes de pollution
Modeled smoke / atmospheric composition6 fields
FR-SW · FR-SWPM2.5 · 477.8 µg/m³

Maximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.

Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecast
FR-MED · FR-MEDPM2.5 · 42.7 µg/m³

Maximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.

Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecast
ES-NW · ES-NWPM2.5 · 19.1 µg/m³

Maximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.

Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecast
ES-MED · ES-MEDPM2.5 · 13 µg/m³

Maximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.

Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecast
ES-S · ES-SPM2.5 · 16.1 µg/m³

Maximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.

Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecast
ES-C · ES-CPM2.5 · 177.5 µg/m³

Maximum among the two governed regional sample points over the frozen five-day CAMS window; modeled atmospheric composition, not a station measurement and not wildfire-only attribution.

Valid 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z/2026-07-30T23:00:00ZCAMS Europe air-quality forecast
FIRMS frozen regional activity snapshotexact-point-snapshot
Retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 3:36 PM UTC
ES-NW50detections · 24 h

390.2 MW FRP · 288 detections / 7 d

ES-MED240detections · 24 h

5,468.5 MW FRP · 387 detections / 7 d

ES-S18detections · 24 h

194.7 MW FRP · 45 detections / 7 d

ES-C2,003detections · 24 h

20,666.2 MW FRP · 4,129 detections / 7 d

FR-MED78detections · 24 h

413.2 MW FRP · 499 detections / 7 d

FR-SW1,019detections · 24 h

7,260.3 MW FRP · 2,670 detections / 7 d

Exact frozen VIIRS thermal observations. They remain distinct from confirmed incidents and EFFIS/JRC satellite-mapped burnt-area perimeters.

Reproducible Auburn IC1

14-day forecast playback

Auburn IC1 separates immediate spread pressure from medium-range persistence and ensemble uncertainty.

Immediate0–72 hours

Incident-conditioned spread pressure and directional wind corridor.

PersistenceDays 4–7

Regional escalation, drying, overnight recovery and modeled relief.

EnsembleDays 8–14

P10/P50/P90 scenario envelope across 51 members—not an exact fireline.

FR-SWSUSTAINED

France · Southwest

Auburn IC1 · 0–72 h pressure0.793
Weather P10
0.292
Weather P50
0.348
Weather P90
0.391
Most supported corridorE
No alternative sector reached the governed threshold
Confidence 90%steady
FR-MEDSUSTAINED

France · Mediterranean

Auburn IC1 · 0–72 h pressure0.564
Weather P10
0.268
Weather P50
0.394
Weather P90
0.473
Most supported corridorSE
Credible: E
Confidence 90%steady
ES-NWMODERATING

Spain · Northwest

Auburn IC1 · 0–72 h pressure0.510
Weather P10
0.377
Weather P50
0.397
Weather P90
0.415
Most supported corridorS
Credible: SE
Confidence 90%waning
ES-MEDESCALATING

Spain · Mediterranean

Auburn IC1 · 0–72 h pressure0.664
Weather P10
0.642
Weather P50
0.657
Weather P90
0.686
Most supported corridorNE
Credible: NW, N
Confidence 90%growing
ES-SESCALATING

Spain · South

Auburn IC1 · 0–72 h pressure0.472
Weather P10
0.748
Weather P50
0.758
Weather P90
0.774
Most supported corridorNE
Credible: W, NW, SW
Confidence 90%growing
ES-CESCALATING

Spain · Central tracker · tracker-only profile

Auburn IC1 · 0–72 h pressure0.929
Weather P10
0.571
Weather P50
0.586
Weather P90
0.600
Most supported corridorS
Credible: SE
Confidence 50%growing

Scenario envelope, not a growth simulation. P10/P50/P90 quantify ensemble fire-weather pressure. Corridors represent downwind monitoring sectors. They are not probabilities that fire reaches a named place, predicted arrival times or exact future firelines.

Current operational situation

Major-incident board

Prioritized by population exposure, operational status and evidence-backed spread pressure—not by headline volume.

Priority 01 · FRactif et non fixé

Gironde

Incendie de Saumos

FR-SW

Gironde incident complex; its two EFFIS polygons remain separate measurements and are not joined to any Spanish perimeter.

Official reported area
42,000 ha
EFFIS mapped area
34,640 ha
Evacuated
220,000 evacuated in the Gironde source scope
Confined
No confinement total published in the frozen source package
Priority 02 · ESperimetrado, con focos activos

Madrid

Incendio forestal Sierra Oeste

ES-C

Madrid Sierra Oeste is a distinct physical incident. Shared command with Ávila and Toledo does not establish a continuous perimeter.

Official reported area
22,000 ha
EFFIS mapped area
16,817 ha
Evacuated
29,488 outside their homes in the Madrid reporting scope
Confined
21,132 confined in the Madrid reporting scope
Priority 03 · ESperimetrado, con frentes activos

Ávila

Incendio de Burgohondo

ES-C

Ávila/Burgohondo remains physically separate from Madrid Sierra Oeste; a small discontinuous contact did not establish a continuous fire edge.

Official reported area
21,000 ha
EFFIS mapped area
45,405 ha
Evacuated
16 municipalities reported evacuated; no non-overlapping person total frozen
Confined
3 municipalities reported confined; no non-overlapping person total frozen
Priority 04 · ESperimetrado, vigilancia activa

Toledo

Frente occidental de Toledo

ES-C

Toledo remains a distinct administrative and physical record; no governed EFFIS polygon was assigned in this package.

Official reported area
Not published
EFFIS mapped area
Not published
Evacuated
5,200 evacuated across the Toledo reporting scope
Confined
No separable Toledo confinement total published
Priority 05 · FRactif et non fixé

Landes

Incendie de Biscarrosse

FR-SW

Landes is maintained separately from the Gironde incident despite shared regional resources and smoke.

Official reported area
3,500 ha
EFFIS mapped area
4,033 ha
Evacuated
30,000–36,000 evacuated; source range retained
Confined
No confinement total published
Priority 06 · ESfuera de capacidad de extinción

Castellón/Castelló

Incendio de La Vall d'Uixó

ES-MED

Plana Baixa incident; separate from the Manises fire and its casualty record.

Official reported area
4,300 ha
EFFIS mapped area
6,606 ha
Evacuated
Approximately 16,000 evacuated
Confined
La Vall d'Uixó and Betxí under confinement orders; no reconciled person total
Priority 07 · FRcontenu, reprises actives

Var

Feu du Gros Bessillon

FR-MED

Var incident record; no physical connection to the southwest France incidents.

Official reported area
4,000 ha
EFFIS mapped area
3,215 ha
Evacuated
Approximately 3,000 evacuated; about 2,000 still unable to return at the cited update
Confined
No confinement total published
Priority 08 · ESestabilizado, vigilancia

Guadalajara

Incendio de La Mierla

ES-C

La Mierla is separate from the Madrid–Ávila–Toledo national-emergency command group.

Official reported area
35,000 ha
EFFIS mapped area
33,418 ha
Evacuated
Approximately 1,200 evacuated across the incident scope
Confined
14 localities reported confined; no reconciled person total
Priority 09 · FRactif

Haute-Corse

Feu de la Restonica

FR-MED

Corsican incident without a governed EFFIS record in this evidence package.

Official reported area
900 ha
EFFIS mapped area
Not published
Evacuated
No evacuation total published in the frozen source
Confined
No confinement total published in the frozen source
Priority 10 · FRstabilisé, traitement des lisières

Pyrénées-Orientales

Incendie de Trévillach

FR-MED

Historical active-season record shown separately from current uncontrolled fronts.

Official reported area
4,900 ha
EFFIS mapped area
3,141 ha
Evacuated
10,000–15,000 evacuated during 4–6 July; historical incident scope
Confined
No confinement total published
Priority 11 · ESperimetrado y controlado

Zaragoza

Incendio de Orés

ES-MED

Controlled Aragón incident retained for seasonal and perimeter context.

Official reported area
15,400 ha
EFFIS mapped area
15,045 ha
Evacuated
Approximately 1,000 evacuated from six municipalities
Confined
No confinement total published
Priority 12 · ESextinguido

Almería

Incendio de Los Gallardos

ES-S

Extinguished Almería incident; casualty totals are not assigned to other Valencian incidents.

Official reported area
5,200 ha
EFFIS mapped area
5,400 ha
Evacuated
Approximately 1,405–1,500 evacuated; source range retained
Confined
No confinement total published

Authority orders · dedicated view

Evacuation, confinement & closures

Population orders retain their issuing authority, affected scope, event time and geometry state. “No information acquired” is never rendered as “no order.”

FR · Girondeactif et non fixé

Incendie de Saumos

Evacuation
220,000 evacuated in the Gironde source scopeGironde, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Confinement
No confinement total published in the frozen source packageGironde, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Authority
Préfecture de la Gironde / SDIS 33
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
A63 closure/restriction reported in the Gironde operational loop.
Source references
gironde-prefecture-situation, gendarmerie-nouvelle-aquitaine, associated-press-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
ES · Madridperimetrado, con focos activos

Incendio forestal Sierra Oeste

Evacuation
29,488 outside their homes in the Madrid reporting scopeComunidad de Madrid
Confinement
21,132 confined in the Madrid reporting scopeComunidad de Madrid
Authority
Comunidad de Madrid / ASEM 112; national emergency unified command
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
M-507, M-540, M-501, M-541, M-512, M-531, M-539, M-533, M-521, M-855, M-537 and M-510 restrictions at authority-published kilometre points. · Bus lines 541, 545, 546, 547, 548, 551, 640A, 643, 645 and 665 suspended; line 642 curtailed. · N-403 restriction between Cadalso de los Vidrios and Almorox.
Source references
madrid-sierra-oeste-official, el-pais-central-spain-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas, rtve-central-spain-july26
Open direct authority route
ES · Ávilaperimetrado, con frentes activos

Incendio de Burgohondo

Evacuation
16 municipalities reported evacuated; no non-overlapping person total frozenÁvila, Castilla y León
Confinement
3 municipalities reported confined; no non-overlapping person total frozenÁvila, Castilla y León
Authority
Junta de Castilla y León; national emergency unified command
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
N-403 restriction between Cadalso de los Vidrios and Almorox.
Source references
el-pais-central-spain-july26, rtve-central-spain-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
ES · Toledoperimetrado, vigilancia activa

Frente occidental de Toledo

Evacuation
5,200 evacuated across the Toledo reporting scopeToledo, Castilla-La Mancha
Confinement
No separable Toledo confinement total publishedToledo, Castilla-La Mancha
Authority
INFOCAM; national emergency unified command
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
N-403 restriction between Cadalso de los Vidrios and Almorox.
Source references
el-pais-central-spain-july26, rtve-central-spain-july26
Open direct authority route
FR · Landesactif et non fixé

Incendie de Biscarrosse

Evacuation
30,000–36,000 evacuated; source range retainedLandes, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Confinement
No confinement total publishedLandes, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Authority
Préfecture des Landes / SDIS 40
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
Source references
gendarmerie-nouvelle-aquitaine, associated-press-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
ES · Castellón/Castellófuera de capacidad de extinción

Incendio de La Vall d'Uixó

Evacuation
Approximately 16,000 evacuatedCastellón, Comunitat Valenciana
Confinement
La Vall d'Uixó and Betxí under confinement orders; no reconciled person totalCastellón, Comunitat Valenciana
Authority
Generalitat Valenciana / CCE 112 CV
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
CV-223 closed between kilometre points 0 and 11 in both directions at the cited update.
Source references
copernicus-ems-plana-baixa, el-pais-vall-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
FR · Varcontenu, reprises actives

Feu du Gros Bessillon

Evacuation
Approximately 3,000 evacuated; about 2,000 still unable to return at the cited updateVar, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Confinement
No confinement total publishedVar, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Authority
Préfecture du Var / SDIS 83
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
Source references
var-prefecture-situation, associated-press-july26, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
ES · Guadalajaraestabilizado, vigilancia

Incendio de La Mierla

Evacuation
Approximately 1,200 evacuated across the incident scopeGuadalajara, Castilla-La Mancha
Confinement
14 localities reported confined; no reconciled person totalGuadalajara, Castilla-La Mancha
Authority
Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha / INFOCAM
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
Source references
infocam-la-mierla, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
FR · Haute-Corseactif

Feu de la Restonica

Evacuation
No evacuation total published in the frozen sourceHaute-Corse, Corse
Confinement
No confinement total published in the frozen sourceHaute-Corse, Corse
Authority
SDIS 2B / Préfecture de Haute-Corse
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
Source references
corse-net-infos-restonica
Open direct authority route
FR · Pyrénées-Orientalesstabilisé, traitement des lisières

Incendie de Trévillach

Evacuation
10,000–15,000 evacuated during 4–6 July; historical incident scopePyrénées-Orientales, Occitanie
Confinement
No confinement total publishedPyrénées-Orientales, Occitanie
Authority
Préfecture des Pyrénées-Orientales / SDIS 66
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
Source references
prefecture-pyrenees-orientales, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
ES · Zaragozaperimetrado y controlado

Incendio de Orés

Evacuation
Approximately 1,000 evacuated from six municipalitiesZaragoza, Aragón
Confinement
No confinement total publishedZaragoza, Aragón
Authority
Gobierno de Aragón / INFOAR
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
Source references
infoar-ores, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route
ES · Almeríaextinguido

Incendio de Los Gallardos

Evacuation
Approximately 1,405–1,500 evacuated; source range retainedAlmería, Andalucía
Confinement
No confinement total publishedAlmería, Andalucía
Authority
Junta de Andalucía / Plan INFOCA
Event / effective time
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Affected places
Scope not published
Geometry state
No authority polygon published in frozen package
Closures / orders
No closure record acquired; this does not mean none exists
Source references
infoca-los-gallardos, effis-current-burnt-areas
Open direct authority route

Official + responsible sources

Verified reporting

Event time, publication time and retrieval time remain separate. Reporting cannot silently supersede a newer authority update.

FR · responsible-news

France

France and Spain battle concurrent wildfire emergencies

AP reports current official figures across southwest France and Spain while attributing each figure to its stated authority.

Event
Jul 26, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC
Published
Jul 26, 2026, 10:20 AM UTC
Retrieved
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Source class
responsible-news
Europe wildfires — France and Spain
ES · responsible-news

Spain

Madrid and Ávila remain physically separate incidents

El País reports a discontinuous contact and continuing separation, even as the national emergency is managed jointly.

Event
Jul 26, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Published
Jul 26, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC
Retrieved
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Source class
responsible-news
Los incendios de Madrid y Ávila
ES · responsible-news

Spain

La Vall d'Uixó advances through Sierra d'Espadà

Responsible reporting relays Generalitat operational figures, evacuations, confinement and the uncontrolled status without treating suspected ignition as established arson.

Event
Jul 26, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
Published
Jul 26, 2026, 5:50 AM UTC
Retrieved
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Source class
responsible-news
El fuego de La Vall d'Uixó
ES · responsible-news

Spain

Central Spain improves, but complex hours remain

RTVE reports the prime minister's warning that favourable overnight evolution did not yet make the active heads extinguished.

Event
Jul 26, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Published
Jul 26, 2026, 8:24 AM UTC
Retrieved
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Source class
responsible-news
Evolución de los incendios del centro de España
FR · responsible-news

France

Restonica fire remains active

Regional reporting places the affected area near 900 hectares and keeps the event distinct from mainland French incidents.

Event
Jul 26, 2026, 8:45 AM UTC
Published
Jul 26, 2026, 9:02 AM UTC
Retrieved
Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
Source class
responsible-news
Restonica — le feu reste actif

Event order, not feed order

Theatre timeline

  1. official · FR

    Trévillach fire detected; later EFFIS mapping remains a separate satellite measurement.

    Trévillach fire detected; later EFFIS mapping remains a separate satellite measurement.

    2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  2. official · ES

    Plan INFOCA reports the Los Gallardos incident extinguished.

    Plan INFOCA reports the Los Gallardos incident extinguished.

    1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  3. official · ES

    Madrid, Ávila and later Toledo enter shared national-emergency command while physical incident records remain separate.

    Madrid, Ávila and later Toledo enter shared national-emergency command while physical incident records remain separate.

    2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  4. official · ES

    La Vall d'Uixó incident begins; Copernicus activation follows without an observed-impact product at cutoff.

    La Vall d'Uixó incident begins; Copernicus activation follows without an observed-impact product at cutoff.

    2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  5. official · FR

    Gironde reported-area estimate reaches 42,000 hectares; fire remains active and not fixed.

    Gironde reported-area estimate reaches 42,000 hectares; fire remains active and not fixed.

    2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  6. news · ES

    Reporting confirms Madrid Sierra Oeste and Ávila/Burgohondo are not a continuous physical perimeter.

    Reporting confirms Madrid Sierra Oeste and Ávila/Burgohondo are not a continuous physical perimeter.

    1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  7. official · ES

    Plana Baixa remains uncontrolled; evacuation and confinement orders stay in force.

    Plana Baixa remains uncontrolled; evacuation and confinement orders stay in force.

    2 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  8. news · FR

    Restonica remains active with about 900 hectares reported affected.

    Restonica remains active with about 900 hectares reported affected.

    1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  9. official · ES

    Madrid ASEM updates Sierra Oeste: 22,000 hectares and detailed evacuations, confinements and closures.

    Madrid ASEM updates Sierra Oeste: 22,000 hectares and detailed evacuations, confinements and closures.

    1 source reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC
  10. forecast · EU

    Auburn IC1 evidence cycle closes for 0–72 hours, days 4–7 and days 8–14.

    Auburn IC1 evidence cycle closes for 0–72 hours, days 4–7 and days 8–14.

    3 source references · retrieved Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC

No silent reconciliation

Conflict ledger

Conflicting official, mapped and reported claims remain visible with their authority and time.

Method difference

FIRMS count basis

The IC1 scorecard's 3,408 regional detections and the exact archive's 1,870 observations use different governed spatial, time-window and retrieval definitions. Both remain visible and are not silently reconciled.

Auburn IC1 frozen scorecard input
3,408 detections across six IC1 regional boxes
Exact France/Spain country-polygon trailing-24h archive
1,870 exact VIIRS observations: 606 FR / 1,264 ES
Open

Gironde area basis

The operational estimate and two EFFIS mapped polygons use different measurement systems and are not silently reconciled.

Préfecture de la Gironde (relayed)
42,000 ha
EFFIS/JRC satellite mapping
29,872 ha + 4,768 ha
Open

Central Spain aggregate scope

The 77,000-hectare national-emergency aggregate cannot be added to the three separately identified incident claims.

Protección Civil, responsible-source relay
77,000 ha across Madrid, Ávila and Toledo
Madrid authority and responsible reporting
22,000 ha Madrid; 21,000 ha Ávila; Toledo not separately reconciled
Open

La Vall d'Uixó area basis

The incident-command estimate and satellite-mapped burnt area are displayed side by side.

Generalitat operational figure relayed by El País
4,300 ha
EFFIS/JRC satellite mapping
6,606 ha
Open

Var area basis

The operational upper estimate and EFFIS mapped area are independent measurements.

Préfecture du Var
4,000 ha
EFFIS/JRC satellite mapping
3,215 ha

Frozen evidence package

Evidence register

Every public claim must resolve to a governed source record. Retrieval time is not event time.

ClassSourceRetrievedRoute
official-governmentComunidad de Madrid — Incendio forestal Sierra OesteComunidad de Madrid / ASEM 112Jul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
eu-satellite-officialEFFIS current burnt-area recordsEuropean Commission Joint Research CentreJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
eu-officialCopernicus EMSR905 — Wildfires in Plana BaixaCopernicus Emergency Management ServiceJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
official-governmentNouvelle-Aquitaine wildfire mobilisationGendarmerie nationaleJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
official-governmentIncendie de Saumos — point de situationPréfecture de la GirondeJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
official-governmentIncendie en cours — VarPréfecture du VarJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
weather-governmentMétéo des forêtsMétéo-FranceJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
weather-governmentPredicción meteorológica y riesgo de incendiosAgencia Estatal de MeteorologíaJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
air-quality-officialEpisodes de pollutionAtmo Nouvelle-AquitaineJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
weather-modelECMWF IFS 51-member ensembleOpen-Meteo / ECMWFJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
air-quality-modelCAMS Europe air-quality forecastOpen-Meteo / Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
satellite-observationFIRMS active-fire observationsNASA Fire Information for Resource Management SystemJul 26, 2026, 3:36 PM UTCOpen
research-modelAuburn IC1 governed FIRMS aggregation methodAuburn Globe research modelJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
responsible-newsEurope wildfires — France and SpainAssociated PressJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
responsible-newsLos incendios de Madrid y ÁvilaEl PaísJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
responsible-newsEl fuego de La Vall d'UixóEl PaísJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
responsible-news-public-broadcasterEvolución de los incendios del centro de EspañaRTVEJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
official-governmentIncendios forestales — INFOCAMJunta de Comunidades de Castilla-La ManchaJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
official-governmentInformación de incendios forestales — INFOARGobierno de AragónJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
official-governmentPlan INFOCAJunta de AndalucíaJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
responsible-news-regionalRestonica — le feu reste actifCorse Net InfosJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen
official-governmentPrévention et lutte contre les incendiesPréfecture des Pyrénées-OrientalesJul 26, 2026, 1:40 PM UTCOpen

Southwest Europe · Phase 12

Shared theatre. Separate incidents. Explicit uncertainty.

All intelligence centers